As 2024 comes to an end and Koi Tū marks its fifth year as a thinktank, I want to extend my thanks to our donors, supporters and staff for their contributions to another successful year.

In my role chairing the two reviews established by Cabinet to consider the future of the science system and the university system, I’ve had the privilege of meeting many researchers, scientists, and innovators across New Zealand, and I am continually inspired by the possibilities for our country’s future.

This newsletter, which is grouped around our four research themes – future society, human flourishing, navigating change and informing policy – highlights some of our key achievements for 2024. Of particular note is the release of an international AI framework as well as publications on the future of New Zealand’s media and education system, and a study on the perspectives on fairness.

I wish you a safe and relaxing summer.

Sir Peter Gluckman
Distinguished Professor Sir Peter Gluckman
Koi Tū Director

In this issue:

Future society

• Social cohesion
• Reinvigorating democracy
• Perspectives on fairness

Navigating change

• Technology
• Media industry under threat

Human flourishing

• Supporting wellbeing
• Addressing the youth mental health crisis
• Education overhaul needed

Informing policy

• The University and Science System Advisory Groups
• Pacific Academy of Sciences
• Foresight and futures thinking
• Science diplomacy

Looking ahead

Future Society

Social cohesion

New Zealand’s social cohesion is under increasing threat from rapid technological, social, environmental and economic change. Our work, supported by the Wright Family Foundation, explores how we can maintain and enhance trust both in institutions and society and have honest discussion on difficult issues. In a piece for BusinessDesk last week, I discussed how the New Zealand Royal Commission of Inquiry on the Covid-19 pandemic report highlights that the pandemic’s consequences are prolonged and multidimensional, and it’s important that policymakers do not dismiss that social capital is a liberal democracy’s core asset. The need for New Zealand to find a path towards a more cohesive view of our future as a liberal and multicultural democracy based on a bicultural history is real. Koi Tū has a valuable role to play in addressing what is a core challenge, namely finding and defining our national identity around which we can coalesce.

This year we hosted Harvey Whitehouse, professor of social anthropology at the University of Oxford and an associate member of Koi Tū who shared his insights from studying cohesion within gangs, cults and terrorists. Harvey’s public lecture is available here and you can read more about Harvey’s visit here (Listener, paywalled).

We also welcomed R.Mark Evans OBE as an honorary member of Koi Tū to work with some of our staff and lead a research project on trust in the police, building on our work around institutional trust and its connection to social cohesion.

We have delivered a number of speeches to a wide range of stakeholders who recognise the importance of social cohesion, including the Australian and New Zealand Electoral Commission, the New Zealand Independent Principals Association, and the New Zealand Security Sector Leaders Programme.

Working with Oxford University and the International Science Council (ISC), Jacquie Bay and other members of Koi Tū have explored how science and religion coexist in the modern world.

Internationally, I co-chaired with the European Commission a workshop on the challenges as trust in science in increasingly under threat. It became clear that the issues of declining trust in the institutions of democracy are a fundamental matter that Koi Tū will be placing even greater focus on in the coming year.

Reinvigorating Democracy

There is a pressing need for creative and transdisciplinary thinking about the future of democracy. Tatjana Buklijas, Anne Bardsley and Kristiann Allen and have been working for several years with academic, government and community partners to create and test spaces, practices and conditions conducive to a thriving democracy.

In June, in collaboration with the colleagues in the Faculty of Arts led by Associate Professor Matheson Russell, Tatjana convened a symposium titled “Reinventing and reinvigorating democracy”. Read more

Working with the Northern Infrastructure Forum, Auckland Council and Auckland Transport, the team conducted a two-part deliberative engagement project to develop recommendations on time-of-use charging (congestion charging) for Auckland from the viewpoint of an ‘informed public’. A panel of 30 Aucklanders selected by sortition met to learn from about the issues, engage with experts and stakeholders, and discuss trade-offs before working towards consensus-based recommendations. Read more

Staff have also supported a local process of informed deliberation in partnership with Te Weu in Tairawhiti, looking at opportunities and challenges in land use transitions for the region as it builds its resilience to climate change. Read more

Perspectives on fairness

What does fairness mean to New Zealanders? A two-part study conducted by NZ Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) and Koi Tū in partnership with New Zealand Treasury tried to understand how New Zealanders think about fairness to help policy advisors provide more informed advice on the equity implications of policy choices. The study highlighted the importance of much more nuanced enquiry than what can be obtained from simple opinion polls. Read more about the research and outcomes of the study here.

Navigating Change

Technology

Our work on AI and the social impact of new technologies garnered international attention and informed multiple global and national discussions. Hema Sridhar and I were the lead authors on this international report released by the International Science Council A guide for policy-makers: Evaluating rapidly developing technologies including AI, large language models and beyond, which was launched by the Hon Judith Collins KC at a reception at the New Zealand Embassy in Paris in April.

Since its release, Hema has been working with partners to extend this work. This includes a range of New Zealand government agencies as they look at the government use of AI as well as with other NGOs such as Sense about Science (UK) to further develop practical guidelines for the use of AI and its governance. Hema has also delivered a number of notable speeches on the topic including the Institute of Directors and the World Economic Forum.

Hema has contributed more broadly to emerging technology implications in a policy context, including through international workshops (GESDA) and briefings to government officials on the subject.

Media industry under threat

New Zealand cannot sit back and see the collapse of our Fourth Estate. The paper, If not journalists, then who? by Koi Tū honorary research fellow Gavin Ellis, paints a picture of an industry facing existential threats. It suggests sweeping changes to deal with the wide impacts of digital transformation and alarmingly low levels of trust in news. We are also doing work on the loss of regional and local news outlets – creating news deserts which is problematic for local communities.
 
Read the paper here and watch Gavin talk at this year’s Raising the Bar event.

Human flourishing

Supporting wellbeing

It was encouraging to see policy emphasising the critical role of nutrition in early childhood development. The government announcement of additional $4 million in funding for a further 10,000 children in early childhood education is a positive step. Our research led by Dr Felicia Low supported KidsCan to highlight the importance of nutrition for early brain development.

It was also rewarding to see the importance of play being highlighted during PlayWeekAotearoa 2024, with Sport New Zealand Ihi Aotearoa recognising this through their PlayLabinitiative. Research by Dr Felicia Low and Chloe Wilkinson says play sets children up for a healthy, active life and builds the physical, social, and emotional foundations tamariki need to thrive. Read about our play research here.

Addressing the youth mental health crisis

Our researchers, Dr Jess Stubbing and Madeline Hayward, are leading a two-year project exploring the causal factors behind youth mental health challenges from a youth voice perspective and identifying policy interventions that could address this growing mental health crisis. Their work is supported by Graeme and Robyn Hart. Findings will be published in 2025.

Meanwhile, Felicia and Dr Seungyeon Kim write there is an urgent need to cultivate resilience in children and ensure they can safely navigate adversity in an evidence brief Cultivating resilience in children and young people. Felicia’s work is funded by the Wright Family Foundation. Read more

Education overhaul needed

Our report Searching for Utopia: what our education system must confront and what it could be, authored by Dr Nina Hood and Victoria Macann highlighted the urgent need for a transformative change in New Zealand’s education system, which still operates on structures designed over a century ago.

This is the first of two reports funded by the Norman Barry Foundation. The second – due early next year – will provide practical policy solutions to modernise and future-proof our education system. Read the report and the NZ Herald article.  

In 2025 we will be launching the Chloe Wright Memorial Unit headed by Felicia Low to give even greater focus on the development of young people and their policy needs.

Informing Policy

The University and Science System Advisory Groups

Much of my time this year has been as chair of two Advisory Groups established by Cabinet. One to look at the future of the nation’s science and innovation system and the other to consider the University system. These are very complex matters where long-term opportunities and short-term realities collide. Of note is a piece of work to reframe the categorisation of research which proposes a novel approach to rationalise national investment in research. It was published in the Frontier Policy Lab in September and has been extremely well received. Both Hema Sridhar (as the project lead for these reviews) and I have engaged extensively with many stakeholders in the policy, business, innovation and academic communities. These reviews have highlighted the unexploited potential of New Zealand but reinforce the importance of the work of Koi Tū more broadly to support this.

Pacific Academy of Sciences

It was an honour to be acknowledged as an Honorary Fellow at the opening of the Pacific Academy of Sciences, in Apia in October, a culmination of several years’ work I have led to see the pacific scholarly community linked into the global community.

Foresight and futures thinking

Long-term thinking is a core aspect of Koi Tū’s work, and both Hema and I have been heavily engaged in furthering foresight practices and approaches. Hema is leading a joint paper with the UN Futures Lab and the International Science Council on the role of foresight in the Global South. Hema and I have also contributed to an ISC working paper on the evolution of foresight as well as the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)’s global foresight report.

Science diplomacy

During the era of increasing globalisation, science diplomacy was a key tool for addressing global challenges. Today, among fracturing alliances, the field must evolve. In an article, Science diplomacy and the rise of technopoles for Issues in Science and Technology, Vaughan Turekian and I explore how scientists and governments can work across borders and use science diplomacy to collaborate to tackle issues such as climate change and public health.

In my role as president of the International Science Council, I have participated in New York in high level discussions about the failure to progress sufficiently on the sustainability challenges, and I serve on multiple global committees including the Advisory Board to UNESCO on management of social transformation. I have participated in European Commission and OECD ministerial meetings on international Science cooperation. Koi Tū continues to host the secretariat of the International Network on Governmental Science Advice and the Foreign Ministerial Science and Technology Advisory Network reflecting our thought leadership in issues of science and policy making and science and diplomacy.

Looking ahead

Early in the new year we will be announcing major developments as Koi Tū builds its role as New Zealand’s non-partisan think tank focused on the long-term issues affecting New Zealand and beyond. We will launch the Chloe Wright memorial unit to support policy development related to parents and children integrating many of the talents within our team. We will be reinforcing and expanding our work on issues of sustainability.

We will also be announcing significant organisational changes reflecting our maturation as a think tank and establishing an assured future. We remain committed to being non-partisan, independent and focused on the complex issues facing New Zealand and on issues of human, social and environmental futures. We are grateful for the ongoing support of our donors and board.