11.05.2026
New Zealand’s migration story is more complex than the current “brain drain” narrative suggests, according to a new Koi Tū paper, which warns that gaps in data and simplistic analysis are limiting public understanding of migration trends.
Brain drain or business as usual? Looking past the headlines notes that public concern about a “brain drain” intensified in New Zealand during 2025 and 2026, particularly in response to the recent rise in youth departures to Australia.
Between 2021 and 2025, annual New Zealand citizen departures rose from around 26,000 to 64,000. However, the paper finds these trends are not unprecedented and argues that migration patterns need to be understood in a broader historical and economic context.
Authors Sir Peter Gluckman, Georgia Lala and Christoph Grant explore how movement between New Zealand and Australia has long reflected changing economic conditions and global mobility patterns, rather than a one-directional loss of talent.
The paper argues that selective analysis and simplistic narratives limit our understanding of recent trends and calls for a more evidence-based approach to migration policy and public discussion.
Rather than asking whether we are experiencing a sudden brain drain, the authors say the real questions are: what has consistently drawn Kiwis overseas for decades, and how can we entice them, as well as other offshore talent, to settle back in New Zealand?
It suggests better use of IDI data, targeted qualitative research and comprehensive analysis are needed to understand our emigrants, encourage return migration and attract global talent.
