12.05.2026
New Zealand’s migration story is more complex than the current “brain drain” narrative suggests, according to a new paper from Koi Tū Centre for Informed Futures, which warns that gaps in data and simplistic analysis are limiting public understanding of migration trends.
Brain drain or business as usual? Looking past the headlines notes that public concern about a “brain drain” intensified in New Zealand during 2025 and 2026, particularly in response to the recent rise in youth departures to Australia.
Between 2021 and 2025, annual New Zealand citizen departures rose from around 26,000 to 64,000. However, the paper finds these trends are not unprecedented and argues that migration patterns need to be understood in a broader historical and economic context.
Authors Sir Peter Gluckman, Georgia Lala and Christoph Grant explore how movement between New Zealand and Australia has long reflected changing economic conditions and global mobility patterns, rather than a one-directional loss of talent.
“People have been coming and going between Australia and New Zealand depending on different economic conditions for decades,” says Sir Peter Gluckman, Director of Koi Tū Centre for Informed Futures. “Further, it is a rite of passage for young New Zealanders to explore much of the world with their “OE” and this too may have been inhibited until recently by Covid-19 and related issues.”
“What is less clear is whether current trends reflect a temporary post-Covid-19 adjustment and response to economic conditions, or a more structural shift towards permanent emigration,” the paper states.
Sir Peter says the lack of robust data on emigrating New Zealanders makes it difficult to draw definitive conclusions about the long-term implications.
The paper also highlights uncertainty around future return migration trends, with New Zealand citizen arrivals declining from around 41,000 in 2019 to 27,000 in 2025.
“We simply do not have sufficient data or understanding of the people leaving New Zealand to be certain about the nature or nuances of the issue,” he says.
“The current migration patterns do not appear to exceed historical episodes, but that does not mean we should be complacent. We need to better understand what is happening and continue to find ways to make New Zealand an attractive place to live, work and build a future.”
“Even the terminology brain drain may be misleading: the educational levels of migrants are very similar to those of our population and may be higher than those leaving although the data is very uncertain,” he says.
The paper argues that selective analysis and simplistic narratives limit our understanding of recent trends and calls for a more evidence-based approach to migration policy and public discussion. It suggests better use of IDI data, targeted qualitative research and comprehensive analysis are needed to understand our emigrants, encourage return migration and attract global talent.
Sir Peter says: “Let’s get past the histrionics and let’s get the data. A more constructive approach is needed if we are to fully understand our migration patterns, particularly our emigrating population.”
The paper concludes with: “Rather than asking whether we are experiencing a sudden brain drain, the real questions are: what has consistently drawn Kiwis overseas for decades, and how can we entice them, as well as other offshore talent, to settle back in New Zealand?”
Brain drain or business as usual? Looking past the headlines is available to download here
