28.04.2026
New Zealand needs a long-term and non-partisan population strategy to prepare for major demographic shifts, according to a new Koi Tū Centre for Informed Futures report.
People, place and prosperity: The case for a population strategy argues that New Zealand’s rapidly changing demographic make-up has reached a critical point.
A long-term plan is now essential to ensure alignment between workforce, infrastructure, public services, regional development, migration settings and New Zealand’s evolving population.
Authored by Koi Tū Fellow Georgia Lala, Senior Fellow Distinguished Professor Emeritus Paul Spoonley and Director Sir Peter Gluckman, the report outlines how slowing population growth, record-low fertility, a rapidly aging population and an increasing reliance on immigration as the major source of population and workforce growth will shape New Zealand’s future. The country will also continue to see a rapid increase in ethnic diversity.
According to Stats NZ, by 2048, nearly a quarter (22%) of New Zealanders will be over the age of 65 while almost half (48%) will identify with an ethnicity other than New Zealand European. Our fertility rate has already fallen to a record low of 1.55 births per woman, well below replacement fertility.
These trends, combined with the loss of talent overseas and growing global competition for workers, especially skilled workers, are placing pressure on productivity, workforce supply, and public finances. Yet understanding these trends also presents important opportunities for innovation and transformation.
Koi Tū Director Sir Peter Gluckman says New Zealand’s speed and scale of demographic change presents risks and opportunities.
“Demographic change is perhaps the most significant structural shift the country will face in coming decades. It is already reshaping our economy, workforce and communities, and the pace of this change is accelerating.
“All developed Western countries are facing similar issues and there is growing global competition for labour and talent.
“A population strategy can guide policy decisions, such as attracting and retaining a strong workforce, how infrastructure keeps pace with changed patterns of growth, and how communities remain cohesive as the population changes,” he says.
Koi Tū Senior Fellow Prof Paul Spoonley, says population change isn’t driven by one single factor; New Zealand’s demographic future will be shaped by an ageing population, declining fertility, migration flows, and uneven growth across regions.
“A population strategy will help decision-makers to consider these inter-related issues as a whole in making important decisions for our future, rather than in isolation as is happening currently.”
Prof Spoonley says current policy discussions on demographic issues are too short-term and tied to election cycles.
“Demographic trends unfold over decades, but many policy debates focus on issues with short-term pressures such as labour shortages, housing demand, or migration levels.
“A population strategy supports longer-term planning beyond the three-year political cycle and will allow New Zealand to take a more deliberate approach to align these demographic changes with economic, social and infrastructure decisions.”
Sir Peter Gluckman believes a coherent and sustained population strategy will be essential to the sustenance of social cohesion, where citizens feel they belong, are supported, and are respected for their differences.
“Social cohesion is one of New Zealand’s greatest assets, but it’s also one of our most fragile. How we respond to inevitable changes in our population structure could either strengthen or undermine that resilience.
“Without a realistic understanding of these shifts, we risk making poor public policy decisions for short-term political gain at the risk to longer term threats to our social, economic and physical infrastructure.”
