Thriving in uncertain times: Global perspectives for New Zealand’s future

Dr Pedro Conceição recently visited New Zealand as a guest and visiting scholar to Koi Tū Centre for Informed Futures, contributing to a week of discussions on the long-term forces shaping Aotearoa’s future.

Dr Conceição is Director of the Human Development Report Office at the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).

During his visit, Dr Conceição characterised human development as a simple idea: that people should be able to live lives to their full potential. The Human Development Report, a UNDP publication he has led since 2019, examines progress using measures that combine standards of living with achievements in health and education.

Across the week, Dr Conceição engaged closely with the Koi Tū team, acting as a critical friend – reviewing work in progress and exploring shared interests in human development, demographic change, social and institutional trust, societal resilience, artificial intelligence and the relationship between nature and humans.

Several sessions focused in depth on social cohesion, including the emergence of and risks of polarisation and the importance of long-term thinking in liberal democracies operating within short political cycles.

The visit also included meetings with senior public servants and members of both the Government and Opposition, reflecting Koi Tū’s non-partisan approach. Dr Conceição also met with the Māori Queen, Te Ariki Nui, and her advisors for a discussion on issues of shared concern.

At a public dialogue co-hosted with MinterEllisonRuddWatts, Dr Conceição spoke with Koi Tū’s Managing Trustee Sir Peter Gluckman about geopolitical fragmentation, AI-driven technological change and declining trust in institutions.

On artificial intelligence, Dr Conceição argued that outcomes are not determined by the technology alone but by how people choose to use the technology.

Rather than assuming AI will replace people, he encouraged more thinking how it can be used to make people more capable and productive. How societies choose to govern and deploy technology, he suggested, will shape its impact.

Throughout the week, a consistent theme emerged: uncertainty is not new, but the pace and scale of change are. Navigating this environment requires attention to evidence, cross-sector dialogue and a willingness to think beyond immediate pressures.

Sir Peter Gluckman, Koi Tū Director, says Dr Conceição’s visit provided valuable external perspective on the Centre’s work. “The overlap of interests between Pedro and our team was deep and will lead to already agreed important ongoing collaborations.”

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