19.03.2026
The second report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into New Zealand’s COVID-19 response which has just been released, makes a key observation: trust and social cohesion were central to the country’s navigation of the pandemic. That reflection is both timely and important. Protecting these important assets must sit at the core of preparations for society to respond to external pressures including future shocks and longer-term stressors.
When societies face external pressures, policy responses have enormous impact on individuals’ lives and the economy. But any response’s effectiveness ultimately depends on public confidence in government and its legitimacy. Trust in institutions is a key foundation for citizens’ and residents’ initial and ongoing willingness to accept difficult decisions and comply with public guidance.
The question emerges: are we doing enough to support New Zealand society’s long-term ability to remain resilient under pressure?
Trust and legitimacy are themes that sit at the heart the Commission’s key lessons. Several of its recommendations around decision-making systems, legislative guard-rails, and readiness for social impacts share a common basis of strengthening the foundations that support the development and maintenance of public confidence.
New Zealand continues to perform relatively well in measures of institutional trust by international standards, but trends over time matter. Globally, trust in institutions is on the decline. New Zealand is not immune from this trend.
The Commission made two welcome recommendations: firstly, that a government agency must be tasked with ensuring and supporting research regarding institutional trust and measures of social cohesion measures; secondly, it must develop a clear locally and internationally informed evidence-base with such information incorporated into actionable policy advice
These would be overdue and important steps. It has been convenient in policy circles to limit consideration of cohesion to matters of extremism. We have long argued for a broader view.
It is time for a wider conversation about societal resilience.
Firstly, the concept of resilience enables us to consider society’s capacity to cope with disruption in the form of external pressures. This is different than cohesion, which speaks to the internal bonds and trust within society. A shift to a resilience framing is necessary given the scale and nature of the pressures facing liberal democracies. New Zealand’s democracy is increasingly buffeted from within (for example through polarisation, declining trust, disinformation, and increasing inequality) and from without (for example through geopolitical instability, economic shocks, and technological disruption). “
Secondly, a societal resilience lens draws focus to creating strong foundations to enable societies to effectively respond to crisis. Economic resilience matters. However, so do strong institutions, capable leadership, effective legislation, and well-prepared health and emergency systems. Together all of these dimensions shape a country’s ability and capacity to respond to crisis. When societies are under strain the foundations of resilience contribute to whether people and communities support and cooperate and whether governments retain the social licence needed to act decisively.
The resilience of our society itself is ultimately one of New Zealand’s greatest assets.
Thirdly, a resilience perspective forces us to reflect on the breadth of pressures our society faces. While it is often easy to focus on a shock that requires a rapid collective response (like a pandemic, disaster, or geopolitical disruptions such as the current war in Iran) these are not the only sources of pressure on societies.
Society must also withstand the cumulative impact of long-term stressors. These might include rising inequality, declining trust in institutions, demographic change, or increasingly fragmented information environments. Stressors can be just as important as shocks, even if they are less easy to see. Over time, they can quietly weaken the foundations of societal resilience that support societies to respond effectively when a shock eventually arrives.
Thinking in terms of societal resilience encourages us to pay attention to both.
The resilience of our society should be front of mind whenever we think about preparing New Zealand for the future.
If an agency is tasked with monitoring research in societal resilience, it should adopt a deliberately broad perspective. It must do more than measure inter-communal relationships or isolated indicators of trust. That agency will need to develop a deep understanding of the trust that underpins the social licence required for effective action in moments of crisis. This includes both the horizontal relationships between people and the vertical relationships between citizens and institutions.
Understanding societal resilience will also require engaging with cross-disciplinary insights from across the social sciences alongside other fields of research. That broad view is a necessary precursor to a stronger understanding of both societal resilience and how we can strengthen it over time. The agency might also consider monitoring of trends and patterns across the country so that emerging pressures can be identified proactively rather than only retrospectively after a crisis.
Ultimately, resilience is not just about how well economies perform or how robust government systems appear on paper. It is about whether societies remain capable of working together under pressure from within and without.
New Zealand’s long-term wellbeing and prosperity depends on the resilience of its society. Understanding societal resilience as an asset (and protecting it) should be a central part of preparing the country for an increasingly complex and uncertain future.
Sir Peter Gluckman is the Director and Managing Trustee of Koi Tū Centre for Informed Futures. Dr Annalise Higgins is a Koi Tū Senior Fellow who leads the organisation’s work on societal resilience, the information environment, and science diplomacy. Georgia Lala is a Koi Tū Fellow who leads the organisation’s work on social trust and demography.
